Global warming unlikely to reduce the number of deaths during winter

According to a new study, published in IOP Publishing’s Environmental Research Letters journal, the rise in global warming might not lead to a profound decrease in the deaths due to winter as previously believed. The study was carried out in Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public health by a team of researchers led by Professor Patrick Kinney. The team used statistical methods to point out the possible factors that contributed to the deaths of the older people during the winter. It was found that the cities with a warmer winter had the same amounts of deaths as the cities with colder winters.

The reason to this could be that older people deaths in the winter do not occur due to the cold but due to the flu and other respiratory problems. Since it becomes difficult for them to breathe, it affects the whole body and eventually results in death. The other factors could include the lack of exercise and mobility, low humidity in the air and limited time spent outdoors getting fresh air. All of this increases the risk of flu and respiratory problems. The lead researchers also suggested that Vaccination and good hygiene around the older people could be the only available effective precaution right now.

For this study, the researchers considered 39 cities in the US and France but did not find any evidence that the cities having warmer winters witnessed fewer deaths than the cities having colder winters. “Some have claimed that warmer winters due to climate change will lead to big reductions in winter deaths. Our work suggests that this is unlikely to be the case,” said Columbia University’s Patrick Kinney, lead author on the recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

To determine up to what extent the cold affects mortality rates, the researchers gathered and analyzed the mortality rate data from 36 US cities, Paris, Lyon and Marseille. For the US cities, the mortality rates were obtained from the US National centre for health Statistics and for the French cities it was provided by the French National Institute for Statistics and Economics Studies for the period ranging from 1971 to 2007. The study suggested it is necessary for people of all the age groups to spend sufficient time outside in winter so that they are not at a risk of having any respiratory problem.